A central research question of the ZKFS is the perception of crime, offenders and criminality in the German population. The perception of crime and the associated threat perceptions are clearly linked to other socially relevant issues.

As part of a study, we will regularly survey 5000 people several times between 2021 and 2024. The current results of this survey can be found in our publications. A detailed description of the survey and the questionnaire used can be found in the data manual(German, English).

Project description

From a psychological perspective, the perception of crime, offenders and criminality is strongly influenced by feelings of threat, ideological and political attitudes and stereotypes. In addition, there are many social factors that influence this perception, such as demographics, residential area, actual crime and social status and the influence of the media and social environment. The perception of crimes and offenders is clearly influenced by categorical perceptions and has an impact on the extent of social conflicts. Discussions about racial profiling and empirical studies on spontaneous decision-making behavior in so-called first-person shooter tasks show that the perception of the threat of crime is strongly influenced by thinking in categories.

If the perception of crimes and criminals is not based on facts but on psychological processes, this will exacerbate threat perceptions and the associated effects on social coexistence.

In order to investigate this complex of perceptions of crime and criminals and to create a fact-based foundation for a social discussion in Saxony and beyond, a central project will be a longitudinal study of the perception of threats and crime and their social implications in Saxony. In this representative study, a sample of Saxon citizens will be surveyed once a year. This will make it possible to record developments over time that could not be analyzed with simple cross-sectional surveys.

Longitudinal studies are very time-consuming and have therefore rarely been used for questions of this kind. In addition to the snapshot in the respective survey, they offer the possibility of bringing together temporal trends in perception with social and individual factors. Furthermore, regional data such as crime rates, the proportion of foreigners, unemployment etc. can be added to the survey data and thus enable complex analyses of the interplay between psychological processes and objective living environments. Such a longitudinal study is the first of its kind in Saxony and represents an important addition to existing survey studies.

Project process

Our project comprised five survey waves conducted by Ipsos between March 2022 and April 2024. The first wave, which took place from March 23 to April 14, 2022, comprised a representative sample of 5174 participants, balanced by gender, age, education and region. These participants formed the basis for our longitudinal study. In the second wave (September-October 2022), we were able to re-interview 2654 people, and many continued to participate in the following waves. In the third wave (March-April 2023), 1925 people took part, while 1134 participants remained in the fourth wave (September-October 2023). The fifth and final wave in March-April 2024 comprised 581 participants. This decline in the number of participants reflects the expected panel attrition, but was minimized by targeted panel maintenance measures such as personal invitations and reminders.

In total, we collected over 11,000 individual data points, which provide a rich basis for analyzing changes and trends over time. Thanks to the repeated participation of the participants, we can not only capture snapshots, but also depict dynamic developments in attitudes and behavior. All waves were conducted in accordance with international quality standards (ISO standards). Through continuous adjustments, such as refined attention controls, we were able to ensure that the data collected meets the high methodological requirements of a longitudinal study.

The data set that has now been completed enables us to make well-founded statements about long-term trends and changes in various areas and provides important findings for research, politics and civil society alike.

Project management: Dr. Deliah Wagner